Polling seems to be right up there with using tree rings to say what the climate was in the past. They both seem to be pseudoscience.
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By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012
The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. .... Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!.....Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. ...Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
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